Backcasting

Backcasting og forecasting 
Backcasting er en samfundsvidenskab metode til at arbejde sig frem mod et mål man selv sætter sig.
www.backcasting/definition ...

Ved forecasting fremskriver man aktuelle tendenser, forecastingmetoden kan derfor ikke bruges til langsigtet fremtidsforskning i en verden i hastig forandring.

Images of the future 
Wendell Bell and Oliver W. Markley: Two Futurists' Views of the Preferable, the Possible and the Probable
www.researchgate.net/publication ...

Preferable futures
Bell, Wendell 2017: Foundations of Futures Studies: Volume 2: Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society.  Routledge. 
Bell goes beyond possible and probable futures to the study of preferable futures.
www.amazon.co.uk/Foundations-Futures-Studies ...

Harald Welzer 
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Welzer
Om Harald Welzer. Information den 26. september 2018.
Mennesket lammes af apokalyptiske budskaber om klimakatastrofer, men drives af visioner, forbilleder og gode historier, mener den tyske sociologiprofessor Harald Welzer. Derfor leder han en ’stiftelse for fremtidsduelighed’, der i en utopiforladt samtid skaber og viser vellykkede eksempler på alternative måder at leve og producere på
www.information.dk ... 
Harald Welzer: 2012 Climate Wars: What People Will Be Killed For in the 21st Century, Polity Press. 
www.bibliotek.dk ...  og www.books.google.dk ...  
Climate Wars: What People Will Be Killed For in the 21st Century. A lecture by Harald Welzer
www.youtube.com ... 
Futurzwei.org
www.futurzwei.org
Denkwerk Zukunft - Foundation for Cultural Renewal
www.denkwerkzukunft.de ... english

Om fremtidsforskning 
www.samfundsvidenskab.dk/fremtidsforskning

Fremtidsforskningens metoder 
Scenario planning
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning

Scenarier delt op efter 3 tidshorisonter
Kort sigt, mellemlangt sigt og lang sigt.

Scenarios or futures
Three classes of scenarios or futures can be distinguished, answering to the questions:

1: What will happen
Trend extrapolations and business as usual scenarios.
Business as usual (BAU). 

2: What could happen
Forecasting, foresighting and strategic scenarios.

3: What should happen
Normative scenarios like those used in backcasting. Normative scenarios are also called desirable futures, visions, or future visions.

Vergragt and Quist 2011: Backcasting for sustainability:
www.tellus.org/pub/TFSC_Backcasting ...

Backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John. B Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting

Backcasting er beslægtiget med “transition studies”

Transition studies 

J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to Sustainable Development: New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change, Routhledge, New York NY/Oxon UK, 2010.

Example: the transition from sailing ship to steam ship:
F.W. Geels, Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study, Research Policy 31 (2002) 
1257–1274.
Vergragt and Quist 2011: Backcasting for sustainability:
www.tellus.org/pub/TFSC_Backcasting ...

World Future Society 
www.twitter.com/WorldFutureSoc

AGAINST TECHNO-FATALISM - Daniel Oberhaus 2018
In 2016, the documentarian Adam Curtis produced a documentary for the BBC called Hypernormalisation . It’s a great documentary and everyone should watch it, but what’s really important is Curtis’s main thesis: The reason why everything is so fucked up today is that we are unable to imagine a better future and so instead we pretend that everything is okay as the world comes apart at the seams around us.
www.motherboard.vice.com/en_us ... 
HyperNormalisation - A different experience of reality by Adam Curtis 2016
www.youtube.com/watch ... 

Tech’s Frightful Five: They’ve Got Us 
... We are, all of us, in inescapable thrall to one of the handful of American technology companies that now dominate much of the global economy. I speak, of course, of my old friends the Frightful Five: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.
www.nytimes.com/2017 ...