Backcasting

Direkte demokrati 
www.backcasting.dk/emner/direkte-demokrati

Idegenerering
Kommuner
Fremtidens byer
EU

Den Kreative Platform 
En procesmetode fra Aalborg universitet, der er udviklet til at skabe kreativitet og nytænkning
​www.uva.aau.dk/den-kreative-platform

Idegenerering i en offentlig organisation
Case: Museum, v/Rane Willerslev om at bruge magiske cirkler, røde rum og røde råd.
www.radioplay.dk/podcast ...

Nielsen, Poul Valdemar, red. 2000: Backcasting i en kommune - praktiske erfaringer.
Case: Sundeved Kommune. (Sønderborg Kommune).
Eks.: Udvikling i en børnehave.
Eks.: Kommunal udlicitering.
Eks.: udnyttelse af information og IT.
Futuriblerne 28. årgang, nr. 4. 2000.
www.artikelbibliotek.fremtidsforskning.dk ...

 

Future Cities 
Explore the city as the most complex human-made “organism” with a metabolism that can be modeled in terms of stocks and flows
www.edx.org/course/future-cities ...

Getting into the Right Lane for 2050
Jan Bakkes, PBL Netherlands
Environment Assessment Agency 
www.tias-web.info ... pdf
Getting into the Right Lane for 2050 examines the EU of today, from a global perspective, and looks at long-term visions on the world of 2050. It identifies key decisions for today on global land and water resources, and low-carbon energy systems, including transport.
www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009 ...

Links
www.pbl.nl/en/search ...

Building Bridges from the Present to Desired Futures - Evaluating Approaches for Visioning and Backcasting.
Promising approach in guiding national efforts towards 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
www.pbl.nl/en/publications ...

The Sustainable City  
www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012 ...

Hennicke P (2004) Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on
sustainable energy supply, Energy Policy 32(15): 1673-1678.

McDowall W, Eames M (2006) Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: a review of the hydrogen futures literature, Energy Policy 34: 1236-1250.

Mulder H, Biesiot W (1998) Transition to a sustainable society: a backcasting approach to modelling energy and ecology, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham UK.

Mulder KF (2005) Innovation by disaster: the ozone catastrophe as experiment of forced innovation, International Journal of Environment & Sustainable development 4(1): 88-103.

Robinson J (1982) Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis, Energy Policy 10: 337-344.

How A Legacy Brand Imagines A New Future
Lessons From Fisher-Price 

Backcasting allows you to analyze consumer values alongside trends in business, culture, and technology to establish an ambitious vision for the future.

To avoid crafting an unrealistic vision of the future, start by understanding your target customer—today and in the future. For instance, to remain relevant to future generations of consumers, Fisher-Price set out to understand the values of parents.

www.fastcodesign.com ...

The global banking giant approached Continuum with a lofty challenge: envision the bank of the future 

Banks must adapt to individual customers’ needs and expectations. This requires the redistribution of services that were once centralized at a single branch or location across a complex, customer-centric ecosystem.
www.continuuminnovation.com ...

Ledelseskommissionen  
Ledelseskommissionen er nedsat af regeringen for at understøtte bedre ledelse i hele den offentlige sektor.
www.ledelseskom.dk
www.twitter.com/ledelseskom

Arbejdsliv - Kompetencernes ABC
www.vpt.dk/psykisk-arbejdsmiljo ...

Backcasting approach for sustainable
mobility. Edited by Apollonia Miola 2008.  
... In the second section, a backcasting exercise to define an EU sustainable transport system is developed ...
EU-POSSUM project
The EU-POSSUM project (Banister et al, 2000) was the first project to assess European Transport policies as to their consistency and feasibility, using qualitative scenario based on backcasting approach. 
OECD project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST)
Then, the OECD project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) (OECD, 2000; 2002a; 2002b) uses backcasting method to consider what the transport system would look like in Europe if current transport emissions were reduced by 80-90%. 
UK VIBAT project 
More recently, in UK VIBAT project examines (Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Policy) the possibilities of reducing transport carbon dioxide emissions in the UK by 60% by 2030
www.publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu ...

Banister D, Stead D, Steen P, Åkerman J, Dreborg K, Nijkamp P, Schleicher-Tappeser R (2000a) European
transport policy and sustainable mobility, Spon Press, London UK.

Banister D, KH Dreborg, L Hedberg, S Hunhammar, P Steen, Åkerman J (2000b) Transport policy scenarios for the EU in 2020: images of the future, Innovation 13: 27-45.

Geurs K, van Wee B (2004) Backcasting as a tool for sustainable transport policy making: the environmentally sustainable transport study in the Netherlands, EJTIR 4: 47-69.

Roth A, Kaberger T (2002) Making transport systems sustainable, Journal of Cleaner Production 10: 361-371.

Rotmans J, Kemp R, van Asselt M (2001) More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy, Foresight 3(1): 15-31.

Åkerman J (2005) Sustainable air transport: on track in 2050, Transportation Research D 10: 111-126.

Åkerman J, Höjer M (2006) How much transport can the climate stand? Sweden on a sustainable path in
2050, Energy Policy 34(14): 1944-1957.

Sustainable development  
Hamm, Bernd 1998: Sustainable development and the future of cities. ITDG Publishing. 
www.bibliotek.dk/da/search ...
www.books.google.dk/books ...

The City of Tomorrow 
Sensors, Networks, Hackers, and the Future of Urban Life
Carlo Ratti and Matthew Claudel
...  cities are already being reshaped by pervasive IT and connectivity. ...
www.i-cio.com/management/insight ...

Sustainable Regional Energy 2050 
Herrmann, Nicolai 2011: Regional Energy 2050: A sustainability-oriented strategic backcasting methodology for local utilities. 
... classical trend-based strategy approaches do not address the systemic challenges that arise from the need for sustainable development,. 
www.ideas.repec.org ...
www.books.google.dk ... 

Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning
J. Holmberg  & K. -H. Robert 2011
Pages 291-308 | Published online: 04 Mar 2011
www.tandfonline.com ... 

Strategic Sustainable Development  
A framework for strategic sustainable development 
Goran Ingvar Broman, Karl-Henrik Robert
www.mdh.se ... pdf 

Sustainable Cities 
Broman, G., Franca, C.-L., Trygg, L., 2013. Sustainable Cities in a Backcasting
Perspective. Swedish District Heating Association, ISBN 978-91-7381-118-7. Report 2013:20.

Case: Ray C. Anderson, former CEO of Interface
The first international example is Ray C. Anderson, former CEO of Interface (e.g. Anderson, 2011). Anderson invented a ‘story’ within the company to communicate backcasting from sustainability principles. The whole endeavor of eventually
becoming sustainable was named “Mission Zero” and he metaphorically compared it with climbing a mountain higher than Mount Everest, namely “Mount Sustainability”.
www.mdh.se ... pdf 

Engaging private actors  
Robert, M., 2015. Engaging private actors in transport planning to achieve future emission targets e upscaling the CERO-process to regional perspectives. J. Clean. Prod. (in this issue).
www.mdh.se ... pdf 

Senge, P., 2003. Creating desired futures in a global economy. Reflections 5 (1), 1-12.
www.iwp.jku. ... pdf
Change: Five Case Studies of Guided Change Initiatives
www.solonline.org/library

Bode M (2000) Consumers’ acceptance analysis of scenarios, Final Report, SusHouse Project, Lehrstuhl Markt und Konsum, Hannover University, Germany.

Bras-Klapwijk R (2000) Environmental assessment of scenarios, Final Report, SusHouse Project, Delft University of Technology NL.

Bras-Klapwijk RM, Knot JMC (2001) Strategic environmental assessment for sustainable households in 2050: illustrated for clothing, Sustainable Development 9(2):109-118.

Carlsson-Kanyama A, Dreborg KH, Engström R, Henriksson G (2003a) Possibilities for long-term changes of city life: experiences of backcasting with stakeholders, Fms-report 178, Environmental Strategies Research Group, Stockholm, Sweden, ToolSust project.

Carlsson-Kanyama A, Dreborg KH et al. (2003b) Images of everyday life in the future sustainable city:
experiences of back-casting with stakeholders in five European cities, Fms-report 182, Environmental
Strategies Research Group, Stockholm, Sweden, ToolSust project.

Dekker C, Quist J (2000) Consumer acceptance of shopping, cooking and eating scenarios in the Netherlands, Background Report, SusHouse Project, Delft University of Technology NL.

Green K, Young W (2000) The shopping, cooking and eating function, Final Report, SusHouse Project, Manchester School of Management, UMIST, Manchester UK.

Green K, Vergragt P (2002) Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable
technological and social innovations, Futures 34: 381-400.

Green K, Harvey M, McMeeking A (2003) Transformations in food consumption and production systems, Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning 5: 145–163.

Green K, Foster C (2005) Give peas a chance: transformations in food consumption and production systems, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 663-679.

Halme, M. and M. Antonnen (2004). Sustainable Homeservices? Win-win Possibilities for Housing Providers and Real Estate Services? Eres2003 –congress, Helsinki. 

Manzini E, Jégou F (1998) Scenarios for sustainable households, in: E Brand, T de Bruijn, J Schot (eds.)
Partnerships and leadership: building alliances for a sustainable future, Proceedings Greening of Industry
Network Conference, Rome, Italy, November 15-18.

Manzini E, Jégou F (2000) The construction of Design Orienting Scenarios, Final report, SusHouse project, Politecnico di Milano, Dept of Industrial Design, Milan, Italy.

Noorman KJ, Schoot Uiterkamp T (1998, eds.) Green households? Domestic consumers, environment and
sustainability, Earthscan, London UK.

OECD (2002): Towards Sustainable Household Consumption? Trends and Polices in OECD
countries, OECD: Paris

SCORE! (Sustainable Consumption Research Exchanges) is an EU-funded network project that supports the UN’s 10 Year Framework of
Programs on Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP).
www.citeseerx.ist.psu.edu ... pdf

Quist J, Green K, Szita Toth K, Young W (2002a) Stakeholder involvement and alliances for sustainable shopping, cooking and eating, in: T de Bruijn, A Tukker (eds.) Partnerships and leadership: building alliances
for a sustainable future, Kluwer Academic Publishers: 273-294.

Vergragt P (2000) Strategies towards the sustainable household, Final Report, SusHouse project, Delft
University of Technology NL

Vergragt PJ (2005) Back-casting for environmental sustainability: from STD and SusHouse towards implementation, in: M Weber, J Hemmelskamp (eds.), Towards environmental innovation systems, Springer,
Heidelberg Germany: 301-318

Young W (2000) Shopping, cooking and eating in the United Kingdom, Final Report, SusHouse Project,
UMIST, Manchester UK.

Young W, Quist J, Tóth K, Anderson, K Green K (2001) Exploring sustainable futures through design orienting scenarios: the case of shopping, cooking and eating, Journal of Sustainable Product Design 1(2):
117-129.

Young W, Simms J (2000) Economic analysis of scenarios, Final Report, SusHouse Project, UMIST, Manchester UK.

www.suspronet.org. - Internet Archive 2005. 

Grin J, Felix F, Bos B, Spoelstra S (2004) Practices for reflexive design: lessons from a Dutch programme on sustainable agriculture, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy 1: 126-149.

Vereijken PH (2002) Transition to multifunctional land use including agriculture, Netherlands Journal of
Agricultural Science 50(2): 171-179.

The Truth About Corporate Transformation 
Total shareholder return (TSR) 
Five Evidence-Based Factors in Transformation Success: 
1. Efficiency and investor expectations. 
2. Revenue growth is the primary driver of long-run success. 
3. Long-term strategy and  R&D ... especially in turbulent environments.
4. New, external leadership improves the odds of transformation success.
5. Formalized transformation programs are helpful.
www.sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-truth ...